Thai Election Pledges to Rekindle Investor Confidence and Revive IPO Market

As Thailand approaches its February 8 election, the battered capital market has become a central theme for candidates seeking to restore investor faith. Weak growth, a drought in initial public offerings and lingering governance questions are driving parties to present competing blueprints for revitalisation.

Key Takeaways

• Election focus: Capital-market reforms top the agenda as GDP expansion hovers near 1.5%.

• IPO slump: Funds raised via new listings plunged from ฿98 B in 2021 to under ฿12 B last year.

• Divergent paths: Strategies range from tech-driven products to regulatory overhauls.

Election Countdown and Market Confidence

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) sees more than 20 million investors—both domestic and foreign—relying on a vibrant equity platform to channel savings into growth. Economists warn that with GDP growth capped around 1.5%, reviving the IPO pipeline and bolstering daily turnover are critical to avoid a prolonged slump. At a recent forum organised by FETCO, experts emphasised credible governance, liquidity enhancement and long-term savings as non-negotiable pillars for any incoming administration.

Divergent Strategies on the Campaign Trail

Political parties have unveiled sharply different approaches to jump-start the market:

People’s Party: Advocates dismantling monopolies, empowering an independent regulator and cutting transaction fees. Its manifesto promises special windows for SME financing, expanded use of a revived Tax-Incentivised Savings Account (TISA) and tougher enforcement against insider trading.

Pheu Thai: Favors policy continuity, leaning on digital instruments like G-Token government bonds and a Tourist DigiPay platform to convert foreign crypto holdings into baht spending. The party also highlights precision agriculture financing and streamlined IPO approvals to fast-track new listings.

Bhumjaithai: Puts political stability at the forefront, promoting public-private partnerships for green infrastructure alongside accelerated individual savings reforms. It calls for broader tax perks to attract long-term capital and incentives for sustainability-linked projects.

Other contenders—from the Democrats with their Forest Bond concept to Kla Party’s AI-driven oversight tools—have pitched niche ideas, but all jockey around the same core challenge: restoring investor trust.

A Closer Look at IPO Trends

The Thailand IPO market has contracted sharply over the past four years:

• 2021: Raised ฿98 B from 45 listings

• 2022: Collected ฿97 B via 47 new issues

• 2023: Dropped to ฿38 B across 29 companies

• 2024: Slumped to ฿20 B from 32 firms

• 2025: Hit a 14-year low of under ฿12 B (17–18 floats)

With valuations trading at a 30% discount to ASEAN peers, many issuers are delaying or looking overseas. Reversing this trend will require both regulatory clarity and fresh instruments to lure retail and institutional buyers back.

Regulator Reboot: SEC and SET Blueprints

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s three-year plan, titled "Building Trust, Powering Growth," centers on three pillars:

• Tie (Sustain and Upgrade): Swift legal action against abuses, revising Material Transaction rules and tightening related-party oversight.

• Trends (Stay Ahead): Embracing technology, expanding ESG monitoring and fast-tracking digital assets under a prospective digital-SEC framework.

• Trust (Uphold Integrity): Raising gatekeeper standards—auditors, advisors—and mandating deeper disclosure to protect minority shareholders.

Concurrently, the SET’s 2026–28 roadmap aims to launch Bond Connect, crypto ETFs and new leveraged products to diversify offerings beyond equities.

Global Insights for Thai Green Finance

Lessons from European Green Deal bonds and Chile’s renewable auctions underscore the power of well-structured PPP arrangements. Key success factors include:

• Risk allocation: Clear sharing of responsibilities between public and private partners.

• Contract flexibility: Mechanisms to adjust terms when economic conditions shift.

• Strong oversight: Independent monitors to ensure performance and social benefit.

Thailand can adapt these models by developing green PPP bonds, expanding carbon-credit trading and embedding ESG criteria in all new listings.

What Investors Should Watch

Coalition negotiations—which ministries will steer market policy?

First 100-day agenda—especially any moves on digital-asset taxation or green-bond guidelines.

Foreign inflows—even a $1 B net purchase surge could tighten spreads and reignite IPO interest.

Regulatory milestones—go-live of Bond Connect in Q1 and revised short-sell rules.

A coherent post-election framework could shift Thailand’s capital market from a value trap wrapped in red tape to a platform for sustainable growth. Without it, the nation risks ceding ground to more agile regional peers.