Southern Thai Voters Lean to Abhisit’s Democrats Amid Flood Backlash

Southern politics just reclaimed the spotlight. A fresh opinion poll suggests many residents below the Isthmus remain uncertain about who should lead the country, yet the familiar blue banner of the Democrat Party is edging back into pole position. Former premier Abhisit Vejjajiva tops the list of named contenders, while voter frustration over the government’s disaster response still hangs in the humid air.

Why the South suddenly matters again

For decades the southern provinces were almost a one-party fortress. That reputation cracked in the 2023 general election, when at least four national parties picked up House seats. This fragmentation has turned the South into a decisive swing region—crucial for any coalition hoping to reach the House of Representatives’ 251-seat threshold. The latest survey, conducted by NIDA on a sample of 2,000 eligible voters across 14 provinces, reinforces how fluid loyalty now is: more than one-third of those questioned still do not see a “right” prime-ministerial option.

Reading the poll numbers

Support for individual leaders is now split three ways. The largest single slice—32.25 %—is pure indecision. Among declared preferences, Abhisit commands 25.65 %, a result that nudges him ahead of caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who attracts 15.40 %. A younger challenger, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, secures 12.85 %, confirming that anti-establishment sentiment that surfaced in 2023 is still alive. Everyone else, from former coup-leader Prayut down, registers in low single digits.

Party branding tells an equally nuanced story. The Democrats are back on top with 28.60 %, almost neck-and-neck with the 28.45 % who say they have yet to find a party that inspires confidence. The re-named People’s Party—successor to 2023’s Move Forward—sits at 17.80 %, while the once-confident Bhumjaithai slips to 11.65 %.

Flood management fallout

A series of severe floods last month washed away more than homes and roads; it also swept public goodwill from the capital. Southern voters watched as relief funds crawled southward and military boats arrived days late in Hat Yai and Phatthalung. Economists at Thammasat University estimate direct losses at ฿140 billion. That sluggish response has bruised the image of Anutin’s Bhumjaithai, which controls both the Interior Ministry and the Disaster Prevention portfolio. Political scientist Dr Bukhoree Yimah argues the event “reminded southerners how national leadership—or the lack of it—touches daily life far faster than any Bangkok legislation.”

Democrat Party’s resilience

Why are the Democrats rebounding after their disastrous 2023 showing? Analysts point to three factors. First, Abhisit’s calm rhetorical style feels reassuring when the South is grappling with flash floods, rubber-price volatility and tourism uncertainty. Second, the party recently shuffled its provincial coordinators, replacing ageing patrons with local activists under 40 who understand TikTok better than town-hall oratory. Third, internal rifts that exploded last year—culminating in the resignation of former secretary-general Chalermchai Sri-on—have been patched over by a promise to stage open primaries for constituency candidates.

Newcomers and shifting loyalties

Yet the poll also underscores that the old “lamp-post” proverb—southerners would vote Democrat even if the party nominated a lamp post—has died. People’s Party canvassers now pack village sports grounds in Phuket and Surat Thani, pitching digital-era accountability. Meanwhile the fledgling Economic Party, led by retired general Rangsee Kitiyanasap, is quietly wooing rubber smallholders angry about declining global prices. Even United Thai Nation, a conservative offshoot fronted by Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, hopes to capitalise on nostalgia for Prayut’s strong-man years among certain security-minded households.

What to watch next

Two dates matter. The Democrat convention slated for early next year could anoint Abhisit as official prime-ministerial nominee, ending weeks of speculation. Soon after, the government must present a supplementary budget to fund post-flood reconstruction in nine southern provinces. How that cash is allocated—and how swiftly roofs are rebuilt—will shape the next poll more than any televised debate. For now, the only constant is volatility: a quarter-century southern stronghold has morphed into Thailand’s most contested political arena, and every party knows it.