Vouchers Fail to Stop Thai Voter Confidence Slump as Opposition Surges

A sense of fatigue is settling over Thailand’s electorate. An expansive cash-back programme is putting extra baht in consumers’ pockets, yet the newest political confidence index still slides to 3.9 on a ten-point scale, its lowest point since mid-2024. Survey takers say the economy feels brittle, the government looks distracted, and only the opposition seems to gain real traction.

When money is not enough

Normally an injection of spending power from the government’s khon la khrueng plus voucher would lift spirits. This time, however, the stimulus appears to be masking rather than fixing deeper worries. The Suan Dusit researchers interviewed 2 208 adults between 25 and 28 November and discovered that people remain anxious about national stability, job security, and household debt even as they line up for half-price meals. The poll’s headline score slipped from 4.02 in October to 3.9 despite the fact that respondents named the voucher as the month’s most successful policy. Analysts point to lingering images of the Hat Yai floods, slow relief payments and a cabinet still haggling over key portfolios as reasons the feel-good factor never fully materialised.

Opposition rides a wave of scrutiny

The one bright spot in the index is the rating for the opposition benches, which, at 4.46, continues to outshine every other indicator. Commentators note that televised grilling of ministers over the cross-border scam rings and the rare-earth concession memorandum has earned younger MPs prime-time attention. Rising star Natthapong Rueangpanyawut now polls ahead of veteran figures, while Rukchanok Srinork and Parit Wacharasindhu have turned constituency visits into viral social-media moments. More importantly, a near majority of respondents described the opposition’s audit function as the most valuable political contribution of November.

Why confidence keeps eroding

Political scientists contacted by our newsroom argue that the erosion has four principal drivers. First, the cost-of-living crisis shows no sign of abating; food and energy bills climbed even as headline inflation stayed below zero, feeding fears of deflation. Second, people are uneasy about the government’s transparency score, which slipped to 3.90 after yet another procurement dispute. Third, crisis management looked shaky when torrential rains left large sections of the South under water for days, exposing gaps in local-central coordination. Finally, coalition infighting—from a delayed reshuffle to noisy debates over the Interior portfolio—has undermined the image of collective purpose the administration projected at its inauguration.

Faces that mattered this month

While more than half the sample could not name a single standout cabinet member, Anutin Charnvirakul emerged as the government figure with the largest share of plaudits. He was followed, at some distance, by Thamanat Prompao. On the other side of the aisle, the survey crowned Natthapong as November’s most visible opposition MP, with Rukchanok and Parit rounding out the trio. Crucially, each of them was associated with highly publicised on-site inspections of flood zones or digital-crime victims, reinforcing the perception that energetic fieldwork pays bigger reputational dividends than parliamentary speeches alone.

The road ahead

Independent forecasts suggest that the index is unlikely to rebound quickly. The Bank of Thailand expects GDP growth of around 2 % this year—even with the voucher scheme—while consumer confidence hovers in the low-50s. Policy advisers say the cabinet must deliver faster, more visible gains in rural incomes, revamp anti-corruption procedures and soothe tensions along the Thai-Cambodian line if it hopes to regain momentum before the local election cycle heats up early next year. Until then, the opposition’s strategy of relentless oversight appears set to keep it in the spotlight, and the public mood, for now, remains sceptical but watchful.