Thailand Flight Costs Rise: Jet Fuel Crisis Through 2026

Thailand-based airlines and passengers face a prolonged period of elevated jet fuel costs and restricted flight availability, as global aviation authorities warn that supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz crisis will persist for months despite a recently announced ceasefire. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has confirmed that even with Iran's commitment to coordinate safe passage through the critical waterway, the recovery timeline for jet fuel supplies extends well into late 2026.

Why This Matters for Thailand

• Thailand relies on Middle Eastern imports for roughly 50% of its energy supply, making the country particularly vulnerable to disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Domestic airlines have already implemented fuel conservation measures as Thailand joins China and South Korea in implementing protective trade measures to preserve energy security.

• Flight cancellations and refueling restrictions continue across Europe and Asia, directly impacting residents and the tourism-dependent economy, with major carriers like Thai Airways, Bangkok Airways, and Thai AirAsia adjusting schedules.

• Jet fuel prices have surged 95% in global markets since the conflict began on February 28, with similar increases affecting fuel costs at Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports.

The Supply Chain Reality Behind the Numbers

Willie Walsh, Director-General of IATA, delivered sobering projections during statements this week, emphasizing that the physical reopening of shipping lanes represents only the first step in a complex recovery process. The core challenge lies not with maritime access but with Middle Eastern refining capacity, which has sustained substantial operational disruptions throughout the six-week conflict.

Approximately 17 to 18 million barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products transit the Strait daily under normal conditions, accounting for roughly 21% of global oil trade. When Iran effectively sealed the waterway in late February, threatening non-approved vessels and imposing reported passage fees as high as 3 million USD (approximately 105 million Thai baht) per ship, the immediate impact rippled through global refined fuel markets. Maritime intelligence on April 1 documented missile attacks on tankers, with Iran maintaining tight control over which vessels could pass.

The International Energy Agency has classified this disruption as the largest in global oil market history, surpassing previous supply crises in scale and immediate economic impact. While a two-week ceasefire took effect on April 7—with peace negotiations scheduled to begin in Islamabad on April 10—industry analysts emphasize that refinery restart timelines, not shipping routes, now determine recovery speed.

What This Means for Regional Aviation and Thailand's Routes

The jet fuel shortage has already forced Asian carriers to implement emergency operational protocols: extra fuel loading at departure airports, additional refueling stops on long-haul routes, and outright flight reductions. Data from March showed more than 1 in 20 flights globally were canceled, nearly double the rate from the previous year's comparable period.

For Thailand residents, this translates to reduced connectivity on key regional routes—particularly flights from Bangkok to Singapore, Hong Kong, and Malaysian hubs—as well as limited European inbound flights that typically feed tourism demand. European airports have imposed strict refueling restrictions, with preemptive cancellations concentrated in the United Kingdom, Italy, France, and Portugal. Both Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports have implemented fuel allocation protocols that prioritize essential routes while reducing frequency on less critical connections.

Jet fuel prices surged from $742 per ton to over $1,710 per ton during the peak crisis period in March, with Brent crude briefly touching $116 per barrel. Although crude prices have retreated below $100 following the ceasefire announcement, refined fuel costs remain stubbornly elevated due to the refinery capacity gap. Airlines have begun passing these costs directly to consumers through increased ticket prices and supplemental fuel surcharges, prompting analysts to warn of softening travel demand in the second half of 2026.

The Long Recovery Ahead

Thailand's domestic energy security concerns intensified when the government implemented fuel export restrictions and conservation measures, a defensive move to preserve domestic supply. This decision reflects the severity of the supply constraint—the temporary closure of the Strait could have eliminated one-third of Thailand's energy supply had the conflict extended beyond the current ceasefire period.

The Thai aviation market depends heavily on fuel imports routed through the Strait, with limited alternative supply chains currently operational. While West African refineries, particularly Nigeria's Dangote facility, have emerged as alternative suppliers for European markets, Asian countries face more constrained options. India, traditionally a backup supplier for the region, has prioritized domestic needs amid the crisis.

Infrastructure Damage Extends Timeline

Beyond the immediate supply gap, industry observers note that physical infrastructure damage to refineries and production facilities throughout the Middle East will require extensive repair timelines. Most projections suggest that in base-case scenarios, recovery will extend into late 2026, with worst-case scenarios involving significant facility damage potentially extending into the second half of 2027, given the years required to restore complex refining operations.

The UN Security Council attempted intervention on April 7 with a resolution condemning Iran's obstruction of navigation, co-sponsored by 136 countries. Russia and China vetoed the measure, highlighting the geopolitical complexities that continue to cloud long-term stability projections for the waterway.

Alternative Supply Routes Take Years to Develop

The crisis has accelerated discussions around Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)—fuel derived from sustainable sources like used cooking oil and agricultural waste—and diversified supply chains, but these alternatives remain years away from meaningful scale. SAF production requires substantial infrastructure investment for conversion facilities and distribution networks before widespread adoption is possible.

Airlines have begun signing long-term agreements with SAF producers, and some governments have implemented policy incentives through low-carbon fuel standards. However, current SAF production capacity represents only a tiny fraction of global jet fuel demand, making it a long-term solution rather than an immediate crisis response.

Practical Impact on Thailand Residents and Business Travel

For expatriates, business travelers, and Thai residents, the immediate future involves higher airfares, reduced flight frequency, and potential routing changes. Key impacts include:

• Visa run complications - Reduced flights to regional visa run destinations (Malaysia, Laos) may force alternative or more expensive routing for those maintaining visa-exempt status

• Emergency travel challenges - Repatriation or urgent family travel faces limited seat availability and premium pricing

• Regional connectivity shifts - Flights from Bangkok to Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kuala Lumpur—traditional business hubs—are seeing reduced frequency and higher costs

• Tourism implications - Advance bookings remain essential but face dynamic pricing as airlines adjust schedules based on fuel availability

Airlines continue to adjust schedules dynamically based on fuel availability at specific airports, creating uncertainty for advance bookings. The tourism sector, which represents roughly 12% of Thailand's GDP, faces headwinds from reduced European connectivity and higher travel costs.

Market observers note that even as the two-week ceasefire provides breathing room, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance will persist until Middle Eastern refineries restore normal operations. That process, according to IATA's assessment, will unfold over months rather than weeks, ensuring that elevated fuel costs and constrained capacity remain defining features of the aviation market through at least the third quarter of 2026 in base-case scenarios.