Thailand recorded only 416,574 newborns in 2025, the lowest figure in 75 years, as the country's total fertility rate fell to roughly 0.86–1.0 children per woman — well below the 2.1 needed to maintain the population. Deaths have now outpaced births for five consecutive years, accelerating the country's transformation into what demographers call a "super-aged society."
Yet within this broader decline, a separate and more troubling trend is emerging among the youngest cohorts. While birth rates among older teenagers have fallen sharply, girls aged 10–14 recorded a birth rate of 0.93 per 1,000 in 2024 — up from 0.77 in 2023 and exceeding the United Nations target of no more than 0.7 per 1,000.
A tale of two age groups
The Thailand Ministry of Public Health has tracked a clear divergence in teenage pregnancy outcomes since 2016, when the Prevention and Solution of Adolescent Pregnancy Act came into force. For girls aged 15–19, the birth rate dropped from 42.6 per 1,000 in 2016 to 18.6 per 1,000 in 2024 — a reduction of more than half.
But the opposite is happening among pre-teens and young adolescents. The rise in births to girls aged 10–14 suggests a different set of drivers, including potential issues around consent and child protection that the existing legal framework may not be adequately addressing.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ath Pisalwanit, an independent economist and ASEAN specialist, warned in February 2026 that Thailand's workforce could shrink from 40 million to 35 million within the next decade if current trends continue. While he did not focus directly on teenage pregnancy, he noted that population quality and labour force participation will determine how Thailand copes with a rapidly aging society.
What works and what remains
The Committee for Prevention and Solution of Adolescent Pregnancy Problems, comprising representatives from six ministries, has driven policy under the 2016 Act. Several measures show measurable results:
• Sexuality education and life skills programmes run by the Department of Health have improved reproductive health literacy among teenagers.
• Teen-friendly health services including the 1663 hotline and Line OA Teen Club — which recorded 314,104 menu users and 17,090 live chat sessions between January 2022 and December 2025 — provide confidential contraception counselling.
• Education rights protection: roughly 75.4% of pregnant students receive support to continue their education, and the government's Thailand Zero Dropout programme helps young mothers return to school.
• Online counselling via RSA Online has reached 95,103 cumulative users, with 4,196 referred for safe pregnancy termination services.
The government has set targets to reduce the birth rate among girls aged 10–14 to no more than 0.5 per 1,000, and among those aged 15–19 to no more than 15 per 1,000 by 2030.
Why the overall birth rate keeps falling
The Thailand Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council identifies several factors behind the historic low in births:
• High child-rearing costs — families, particularly middle-class ones, cite education and living expenses as reasons to have fewer children or none at all.
• Economic uncertainty and workplace stress make younger generations feel unprepared for parenthood.
• Changing values — more people pursue higher education, marry later, remain single, or prioritise personal freedom.
• Inadequate family support policies: state subsidies remain limited, maternity leave provisions often conflict with work demands, and childcare infrastructure is lacking.
• Inequality: around 50% of newborns come from the lowest-income households, raising concerns about resources for child development.
Deputy Prime Minister Somsak Thepsuthin has expressed concern that if the trend continues, Thailand's population could be halved within 60 years, shrinking the working-age population and straining the economy and national security.
Long-term consequences for an aging nation
The Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program noted in policy documents that teenage pregnancy affects not only mothers and infants but also national economic and social outcomes. The Thailand Development Research Institute has found that teenage mothers earn less on average than women who give birth after age 20, as early pregnancy cuts short education and career opportunities.
The United Nations Population Fund and the National Economic and Social Development Board warned as early as 2013 that teenage pregnancy combined with population aging could create severe social and economic instability. Unintended pregnancies — which account for roughly 68% of teenage pregnancies in Thailand — affect birth quality and children's future opportunities.
These dynamics matter because a shrinking working-age population will have to support a growing cohort of elderly citizens. The children and teenagers of today will carry the economic burden of an older society, and those who start parenthood prematurely with limited skills and income are less equipped to contribute to that support system.
The disconnect between two crises
Thailand's demographic predicament is often framed solely as an aging crisis. But the rise in pregnancies among girls aged 10–14 reveals a parallel problem: some of the few births occurring are happening to those least prepared to raise children.
Provinces with historically high teenage birth rates include Prachuap Khiri Khan (51.4 per 1,000 women aged 15–19 in 2018), Nakhon Nayok (50.5), Chon Buri (50.1), Tak (48.8), and Rayong (48.7). However, provincial data is complex, as some teenagers travel to other provinces to give birth, creating discrepancies between delivery locations and registered addresses.
The challenge for policymakers now is two-fold: continue reducing preventable teenage pregnancies, especially among the youngest, while creating conditions that make planned parenthood economically viable for working-age adults.
For residents, the tangible signs are already visible: school counsellors trained under the 2016 Act, health clinics offering teen-friendly contraception services, and hotline numbers like 1663 that connect young people to confidential support. Whether these interventions can reverse the demographic trajectory will determine Thailand's social and economic shape in the decades ahead.
