Korat 2026 Election Poll: 40% Undecided, Anutin Leads

More than anything else, last week’s opinion survey from NIDA Poll underlined one fact: Korat’s electorate is still up for grabs. Four out of every ten respondents inside Thailand’s second-most-populous province could not name a preferred prime-ministerial candidate, and roughly a third are unsure which party deserves their ballot next year. That hesitation is forcing every major movement—from Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai to the fledgling People’s Party—to recalibrate their approach long before the 2026 campaign peaks.

Quick read at a glance

• 40.58 % of voters say “no one is good enough yet” for the top job.

• Anutin Charnvirakul leads the declared field but captures only 13.59 %.

• Undecided party-list vote sits at 31.01 %, ahead of Pheu Thai’s 20.06 % share.

• The same wait-and-see mood shapes the constituency ballot, where 34.86 % have not picked a side.

Korat’s oversized influence

With 16 House seats on offer and a voter roll larger than several small provinces combined, Nakhon Ratchasima frequently acts as a microcosm of Thailand’s wider mood. In 2023 it delivered a mixed delegation that mirrored national coalition arithmetic. Analysts note that whichever bloc captures Korat tends to build momentum toward the premiership because provincial trends ripple through Isan’s heartland.

Decoding the hesitation

Political scientists at Mahasarakham University see five overlapping drivers behind the unusually high undecided cohort:

Policy fatigue – many residents say they’ve heard grand promises before without tangible results.

Candidate quality questions – integrity and ban muang (local roots) matter more than party colours.

Late-breaker culture – past elections show Korat voters often make decisions inside the final fortnight.

Economic worry – drought relief and household debt trump abstract reform agendas.

Information fog – some citizens simply wait for village headmen or family elders to signal a choice.

Faces in the frame

Even inside a fragmented field, a loose hierarchy has emerged:

• Anutin Charnvirakul – the Public Health Minister turned Bhumjaithai boss tops the poll with 13.59 %, leveraging his morphine-to-medical-cannabis brand and regional ties to Buriram.

• Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut – at 13.31 %, the People’s Party newcomer rides an anti-establishment wave that has surprised veterans.

• Yodchanan Wongsawat of Pheu Thai and Gen. Rangsi Kittiyarnsup from the Economic Party scrape just under 6 % each, indicating Isan’s red stronghold is no longer automatic for Pheu Thai.

• Legacy names such as Abhisit Vejjajiva (4.88 %) and Gen. Prayut Chan-o-cha (2.16 %) draw modest nostalgia but little momentum.

Party scorecard: list vs district

Pollsters recorded two subtly different leaderboards:

— Party-list intention: Pheu Thai 20.06 %, People’s Party 17.43 %, Bhumjaithai 14.34 %, then a sharp fall to Democrat and Economic parties.

— Constituency intention: Pheu Thai 22.40 %, People’s Party 16.40 %, Bhumjaithai 12.09 %.

The gap suggests many citizens separate national brand from local candidate. Campaign managers are now hunting strong personalities rather than relying on logos alone.

Inside the strategy rooms

Bhumjaithai headquarters plans to double down on community-health projects and rural clinic upgrades that Anutin can claim as signature achievements. Pheu Thai’s provincial machine, recently bolstered by the merger with Chart Pattana’s "Korat family," is reviving its village micro-loan pitch. Meanwhile the People’s Party, thin on ground infrastructure, bets on social media outreach and campus networks to win first-time voters.

Expert voices

"The polling shows a demand for fresh, trustworthy leadership rather than big-ticket populism," observes Prof. Suphanat Kongsawat, a veteran election watcher. He warns that high undecided figures often compress late: "If one party unveils a believable cost-of-living plan by Songkran, they could swing half those fence-sitters overnight."