Anutin Confirms PM Bid as Suphajee Hesitates, Referendum Sent to EC

Thailand’s next general election remains a moving target, yet voters already have a clearer sense of who will—and who might—be on the ballot for the top job. Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul has confirmed his own bid for prime minister, but the party’s star recruit, Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun, is still weighing her options. Meanwhile, the caretaker government has handed its planned constitution-referendum question to the Election Commission, border flare-ups with Cambodia refuse to fade, and flood-hit Hat Yai struggles to reopen for business.

Quick look at the week ahead

• Suphajee Suthumpun still in “delicate talks” with Bhumjaithai about accepting a PM nomination.

• Election Commission (EC) studying whether a referendum can be held on voting day without breaching the 60-day legal window.

• 33 Bangkok constituencies in Bhumjaithai’s sights, an aggressive leap from its 2023 showing.

• Fresh criticism that the party is “weaponising nationalism” over the Thai-Cambodian border skirmish—Anutin dismisses the charge.

One foot in, one foot out: Suphajee’s undecided leap

Bhumjaithai’s long-teased plan to field a technocratic nominee alongside its populist standard-bearer is still just that—a plan. Anutin told reporters he remains the only confirmed candidate, while Suphajee “needs more time.” Insiders say the former IBM and Thaicom executive worries about leaving the Commerce Ministry mid-mission, particularly with food-price volatility and the baht’s slide on her desk. Party strategists, however, believe her corporate credentials could draw urban swing voters and soften Bhumjaithai’s rural-centred image.

Referendum ride: legal risk or clever timing?

Cabinet last week approved wording for a nationwide vote on whether the next government should draft an entirely new charter. That proposal—and a legal brief from the Council of State—now sits with the EC. Critics note the tight 60-day countdown stipulated by Section 166 of the current charter. Anutin insists “every step tracks the law,” but even senior EC officials admit privately they have rarely faced a timeline this tight. Should the commission balk, the referendum could be kicked into a standalone poll later in 2026, effectively splitting voter turnout and costs.

Reading the seat numbers: ambition vs arithmetic

Asked if Bhumjaithai expects 200 seats, Anutin laughed off the rumour. The party held 71 in the last House, a distant third behind Pheu Thai and Move Forward. Yet internal polling, shared with donors, shows double-digit gains in the Lower North and parts of the Deep South where a cannabis-friendly economic pitch still resonates. “We choose ability first,” Anutin said, repeating a mantra intended to contrast his slate with parties fielding well-known influencers. Analysts caution that the revised mixed-member apportionment system caps any single party’s ceiling well below 200.

Bangkok battleground: 33 wagers on the capital

Bhumjaithai ran only 12 candidates in the capital last time and won none. Fielding a full 33-seat roster signals two things: deeper war-chest confidence and an effort to block future coalition partners from sweeping the city. Urban voters lean progressive, but party operatives say PM-hopeful Suphajee, if she jumps in, could sell a “jobs first” theme that resonates in Bangkok’s post-pandemic gig economy. Early door-knocking shows particular traction in Lat Krabang and Don Mueang, areas long starved of transit links and craving the airport-rail expansion Anutin green-lit as transport minister.

Border heat and nationalism jabs

A brief exchange of artillery fire along the Oddar Meanchey–Si Sa Ket frontier has renewed opposition claims that Bhumjaithai stokes nationalist sentiment for votes. Anutin calls that “nonsense,” stressing he “won’t use soldiers’ lives for politics.” The caretaker administration has ordered commanders to de-escalate, but social media chatter—especially on TikTok—leans heavily patriotic. Future Forward co-founder Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit mocked the skirmish as proof of “weak diplomacy,” prompting Anutin’s curt retort: “Check the comments section yourself.”

Calendar pressure and caretaker constraints

All eyes now turn to the EC, which must within weeks set an election date and rule on the referendum bundle. Until then, Anutin’s Cabinet remains a caretaker—restricted from major budget outlays but empowered to keep basic functions running. Flood-damaged Hat Yai topped this week’s agenda; water has receded, yet hoteliers plead for a soft-loan programme. “Mechanisms are in place to keep Thailand moving,” Anutin insisted, portraying continuity as Bhumjaithai’s quiet advantage.

In short, the party that upended Thai politics with medical cannabis now bets on a private-sector technocrat and a risky referendum to broaden its appeal. Whether that gamble pays off will depend on Suphajee’s decision—and on an Election Commission that suddenly holds all the cards.