Southeast Asia's digital economy has reached US$300 billion in value this year, with projections pointing toward US$1 trillion by 2030. E-commerce commands roughly 60% of that gross merchandise value, making it the dominant force reshaping how people across the region buy and sell. For Thailand, sitting at the centre of this transformation, the shift brings both opportunity and friction — new tax rules, fiercer platform competition, and a regional trade agreement nearing ratification.
Thailand's fast-changing e-commerce landscape
The Thailand e-commerce market posted gross merchandise value between US$26–30 billion in 2024, growing at 21.7% year-on-year. The fastest-rising platform in 2026 is TikTok Shop, which has rapidly challenged established players Shopee and Lazada by leaning into short video and live-stream selling.
Social commerce now accounts for 38% of all e-commerce in Thailand, driven by live-selling sessions, influencer promotions, and integrated checkout features inside social apps. Shopee, meanwhile, is deploying what it calls a "Digital Bridge" strategy — using artificial intelligence to recommend products and manage inventory while helping Thai sellers reach regional and global markets.
Consumers here are also shifting from price-chasing to trust-seeking. Shoppers will pay 5–30% more for guaranteed authentic products, pushing verified mall stores on platforms into a central role in building credibility.
New tax and regulatory burdens for online shoppers and sellers
Thailand's government has ended the long-standing de minimis import tax exemption, meaning all online purchases from abroad are now taxed from the first baht. The policy aims to level the playing field for domestic businesses but will raise costs for consumers who previously enjoyed duty-free imports on low-value goods.
The Thailand Trade Competition Commission (TCCT) introduced new e-commerce platform guidelines effective 25 March 2026, targeting unfair pricing practices and market dominance in the digital economy. Separately, the Electronic Transactions Development Agency (ETDA) has published its 2026 regulatory roadmap under the 2022 Royal Decree on Digital Platform Service Businesses, setting compliance obligations for both local and foreign platform operators.
Businesses qualifying under current rules can claim a 200% tax deduction on digital expenses, capped at ฿300,000, for costs incurred between 24 June 2025 and 31 December 2027. The incentive is designed to accelerate adoption of cloud services, e-tax systems, and other digital infrastructure.
Regional agreement nears the finish line
The ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) concluded negotiations in May 2026, with ratification expected in November. The framework could generate up to US$2 trillion in economic opportunity by 2030 by harmonising digital trade rules, e-payments, data governance, and consumer protection across all ten member states.
DEFA priorities include seamless cross-border digital trade, interoperable electronic payments and invoicing, trusted digital identity and e-signatures, and stronger support for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). However, challenges remain: many small businesses still struggle with cross-border payments, identity verification, and data transfer, while awareness of DEFA among merchants remains low.
Indonesia leads, Vietnam and Philippines surge
Indonesia remains ASEAN's largest digital economy, valued at US$90 billion in 2024 and projected to triple to US$360 billion by 2030. E-commerce alone contributes US$150 billion to that total. The country's new e-commerce regulation (Permendag No. 19/2026), effective 8 June 2026, requires proper business licences for online sellers, mandates platforms to promote domestic and MSME products, and introduces new income tax withholding mechanisms starting August 2026.
Vietnam's new e-commerce law (Law No. 122/2025/QH15) takes effect 1 July 2026, extending regulation to social media platforms with commercial functions and requiring foreign entities without local offices to appoint legal representatives. The country aims for the digital economy to contribute at least 30% of GDP by 2030.
The Philippines is targeting 70% of retail payments to be cashless by 2026 through its Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap, backed by a US$288 million digital infrastructure investment focused on rural connectivity.
Investment flows and platform dominance
Regional e-commerce GMV is projected to hit US$215–230 billion by end-2026, rising to US$350–370 billion by 2030. The major platforms attracting capital are Shopee, Lazada, Tokopedia (merged with TikTok Shop in Indonesia), and Grab's commerce and delivery services.
Shopee (under Sea Limited) expects adjusted EBITDA of US$1 billion in 2026, maintaining its regional lead through mobile-first design, gamification, and logistics expansion. Lazada (Alibaba-owned) shifted strategy toward "Confidence Commerce" and premium B2B sales via LazMall, achieving monthly profitability in July 2024 for the first time in 12 years.
TikTok invested US$1.5 billion in GoTo's e-commerce business in late 2024, acquiring a 75.01% stake in the merged Tokopedia entity to support Indonesian MSMEs. Grab reported net profit in the first half of 2026 and announced in September it would acquire a 60% controlling stake in Atome Financial for up to US$4.5 billion, integrating buy-now-pay-later and digital lending products.
Key investors include Singapore's sovereign wealth funds GIC and Temasek, Indonesia's Indonesia Investment Authority (INA), and venture firms Peak XV Partners and Jungle Ventures. The China Investment Corporation helped launch the Galaxy Orientis China-ASEAN Investment Platform in April 2026, with initial funding of US$520 million toward a US$1 billion target.
AI emerges as the next frontier
Artificial intelligence is absorbing increasing attention and capital. ASEAN-6 companies in AI and robotics have collectively raised US$291 billion as of January 2026. The regional AI market is forecast to grow nearly 28% annually, expanding from US$4.1 billion in 2024 to US$30 billion by 2030. Platforms are deploying AI for personalised recommendations, automated customer service, and real-time inventory analysis.
Infrastructure investment has kept pace. Annual spending on communications, data processing, and hosting services across ASEAN rose nearly sixfold over the past decade, from US$777 million in 2015 to US$4.4 billion in 2024.
What changes for residents
For anyone living in Thailand, the implications are direct. Online shoppers face higher costs on imported goods now that the tax exemption is gone. Sellers must navigate new compliance requirements from both Thai regulators and regional frameworks like DEFA. Payment habits continue shifting toward digital wallets and BNPL services, while social commerce blurs the line between browsing and buying.
The digital economy's growth engine shows no sign of slowing, but the rules of the road are being written now — and they will determine who benefits from the next trillion dollars of value.
