Vietnam’s Durian Push Threatens Thailand’s Top Spot in China by 2026

Thailand’s once-undisputed reign as the Chinese market’s favourite durian supplier is being tested as Vietnam races up the leaderboard, backed by aggressive state policy and geography. Chinese buyers still crave the sweet, custard-like Thai cultivars, but fresher, cheaper fruit from across the border is closing the gap far faster than Bangkok expected.

Quick Glance

• Thai share has slipped below 55% for fresh durian entering China, down from nearly 90% just two years ago.

• Vietnam’s slice has rocketed past 40% despite only receiving formal clearance in 2022.

• Malaysia and Laos are joining the fray, and Hainan now harvests its own trial orchards.

• Chinese investment is reshaping supply chains across Mekong countries under the “China Plus One” strategy.

• Upcoming Thai elections and stricter Chinese residue tests could further shake the field.

Thailand’s Crown Under Siege

Thai farmers shipped about 850,000 t of durian to China in 2024, earning roughly $3.8 B. Yet that volume fell 13 % year-on-year and prices wobbled as bargain-hunters sampled Vietnamese fruit. The biggest blow came during the first four months of 2024, when Thailand’s market share for fresh imports slid to 60 % — its lowest point since Beijing first opened the door in 2005.

Growers in Chanthaburi and Rayong blame two factors: rail-enabled Vietnamese deliveries that reach Guangzhou in 36 h, and rising labour costs at home. Even the signature Monthong cultivar, prized for aroma and texture, now faces direct competition from Vietnam’s Ri6 and Musang-style clones expertly marketed on Douyin and Tmall.

How Vietnam Pulled Off the Upset

Hanoi treated durian as a “national fruit” in 2022, unleashing loans, fertiliser subsidies and export-credit guarantees. Key steps included:

Signing a plant-health protocol with China that replaced grey-border trading with direct rail and road clearance.

Registering 1,400+ orchards and nearly 200 packing houses with China’s customs authority (GACC) for instant traceability.

Building a QR-based provenance system that highlights low-pesticide farming in Đắk Lắk and the Mekong Delta.

Negotiating permission for frozen pulp shipments in 2024, creating a buffer when fresh supply peaks.

Those moves pushed 2024 export earnings to $3 B, up from virtually nothing in 2020. Logistics costs average 30 % below Thai routes, letting traders undercut Bangkok without sacrificing margin. Although residue scares involving cadmium and auramine O briefly slashed Vietnam’s share to 10 % in early 2025, customs clearances rebounded by November, suggesting the compliance fix worked.

Inside China’s Growing Appetite

Mainland consumption accounts for 9 in 10 durians eaten worldwide. The fruit’s rise from niche novelty to livestream sensation mirrors broader trends:

• Young urbanites treat durian as a gift item, driving premium demand in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

• Short-video platforms turn orchards into tourism content, sparking seasonal spikes.

• Retailers bundle durian with bubble-tea toppings, pastries and ice cream, expanding off-season sales.

E-commerce giants now pressure suppliers for year-round availability, something Vietnam’s staggered harvests naturally provide. Thailand’s distinct seasons leave a supply gap each winter that competitors are keen to plug.

Thai Counter-Moves: Quality Over Quantity

Bangkok’s Ministry of Commerce has drafted a three-pronged response aimed at defending the premium niche:

• Total supply-chain audits — From orchard GAP certification to blockchain-based QR labels, the goal is zero-tolerance on residues that could trigger port rejections.

• Story-driven branding — Campaigns on Weibo and Xiaohongshu spotlight Monthong’s buttery texture, while GI labels for Kanyao and Puang Manee seek to mirror Champagne-style protections.

• Faster land routes — Sixteen upgraded border checkpoints, plus the Thai-Lao-China rail link, promise to cut transit times by up to 40 h during peak season.

Private exporters such as Queen Frozen Fruit now livestream orchard inspections and run flash sales dubbed “Thai Durian Day” to remind consumers why they once paid a premium.

The Shadow of Chinese Capital

Under the “China Plus One” strategy, mainland investors control ever more links in ASEAN fruit logistics:

• In Thailand, traders lease plantations in Chanthaburi while financing cold-chain hubs near Laem Chabang port.

• In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, consortiums backed by Guangxi buyers bankroll packhouses that meet GACC specs.

• Malaysian orchards receive upfront orders for Musang King, matching Guangzhou e-commerce flash-sale calendars.

HSBC estimates the ASEAN-6 now capture 14.5 % of global FDI, much of it routed into agri-tech that supports China’s insatiable durian habit.

Outlook to 2026: Tight Race, Wider Field

Analysts forecast Thailand’s orchards to expand harvest capacity by 300,000 t in the next two years. Yet Vietnam could hit 1.55 M t of output by 2025 if rainfall cooperates. Malaysia’s green-light for fresh exports and Laos’s 1,250-rai project promise additional headwinds. Meanwhile, Hainan’s trial farms may reach 75,000 t annually — small in volume but potent as a political symbol of self-reliance.

Election-year uncertainty in Thailand and a possible return of US-China tariff brinkmanship add further unpredictability. For now, most banks believe Chinese demand will stay strong enough to absorb surplus fruit, but only suppliers that win on quality and speed will keep margins intact.

Bottom Line for Thailand

Thailand still owns the storied reputation and the deepest experience in durian export logistics. Yet the days of effortless market share above 80 % are over. Consistent quality, transparent sourcing and creative storytelling must become the new pillars of Thai strategy if the Kingdom wants to stay the king of the so-called “fruit throne room” of China.