Thai Business Leaders Demand Immediate Action on Bills, Debt and SMEs

The Thailand Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) has publicly pressed Prime-Minister-elect Anutin Charnvirakul to treat the mounting cost-of-living crisis as Day-One business, a signal that could determine whether household bills rise or finally ease in 2026.

Why This Matters

• Household debt near 104 % of GDP limits banks’ appetite for new loans and raises the odds of stricter credit scoring by April.

• Electricity under 3 baht per unit is on the table, but only if the incoming Cabinet locks in the “Khon-Lakhrueng Plus” subsidy before the summer heat spike.

• SME bad loans at 9.13 % mean more mom-and-pop shops may close unless the next finance team expands the “You Fight, We Help” restructuring scheme.

• A five-month delay in forming a government would freeze BOI investment fast-pass applications, blocking at least ฿120 B in factory upgrades.

Reality Check: A Fragile 2026 Starting Line

Economists inside the Bank of Thailand (BoT) warn that GDP growth could land between 1.5 % and 1.8 %, the weakest expansion in 30 years outside pandemic times. A stronger baht, a worldwide tech-trade slump and Thailand’s own graying workforce have clipped export receipts and tax revenue. Investors briefly cheered when the SET Index jumped 2.7 % after the 8 February election, but the rally stalled once credit-rating agencies highlighted public debt brushing 70 % of GDP.

Business Leaders’ Non-Negotiables

FTI chair Kriengkrai Thiennukul spelled out a four-point wish list: swift coalition building, an experienced economic squad, aggressive anti-corruption enforcement, and policy continuity for projects such as the Landbridge and smart-city corridors. Without these, he argues, Thailand’s private sector faces a "stop-and-go" policy cycle that discourages both foreign direct investment and domestic expansion. Major chambers are pushing for “Quick Big Wins”—simple decrees like extending VAT refunds for exporters—that can be signed within 60 days of cabinet installation.

Obstacles the New Cabinet Must Clear

Household debt: Latest BoT data put formal borrowing at 87.4 % of GDP; informal loans could boost that to 104 %. Debt service crowds out discretionary spending, shrinking retail turnover in provincial malls.

SME non-performing loans: Rising to 9.13 %, the highest since 2020. Banks are reluctant to refinance, citing weak collateral values amid falling land prices.

Currency pressure: A firmer baht above ฿32 per US$ erodes tourism price competitiveness just as regional neighbours roll out visa-free packages.

Cheaper imports: Chinese consumer electronics and Vietnamese textiles, buoyed by new trade pacts, undercut local producers. Factory utilisation dropped below 63 % in December.

Cyber-crime drag: Fraud losses north of ฿100 B since 2022 have forced e-commerce players to invest in new verification tech, costs that eventually reach consumers.

What This Means for Residents

For Bangkok apartment dwellers, a cabinet delay beyond May could mean summer electricity bills stay high because the planned sub-three-baht tariff would miss the Energy Regulatory Commission’s price-setting window. Shoppers may notice vat-included grocery prices creeping upward if the baht remains strong, as local brands lose volume and raise unit prices. Freelancers and gig drivers should monitor the Virtual Bank licences BoT plans to issue in Q2; new lenders promise smaller, faster credit lines but may charge app-based fees. Elderly residents stand to gain from the proposed “Senior Plus” tax breaks for companies hiring over-60s, potentially broadening part-time job options in retail and logistics.

Investors Are Watching the Clock

The Board of Investment (BOI) says roughly ฿360 B in previously approved semiconductor, EV and PCB projects are stuck in licensing limbo. Anutin’s coalition has floated an “Investment Fast Pass Plus” program—effectively a one-stop e-permit portal—but it cannot launch until a full economy minister is sworn in. Global funds will also track whether Thailand’s policy rate stays at 1.25 %; another cut could weaken bank margins yet spur mortgage demand, nudging the sluggish property market.

The Road Ahead

The political arithmetic suggests a Bhumjaithai-Pheu Thai-Democrat lineup commanding at least 325 lower-house votes—enough to pass a mid-year budget and unlock the Thailand 10 Plus stimulus. But every week of horse-trading risks cooling the post-election optimism reflected in the stock market. As long as structural reforms—from service-sector liberalisation to skills upgrading for an AI economy—lag behind headline cash-handouts, growth will stay below potential. The private sector’s message is blunt: speed, credibility and clean governance must all arrive together if wages, wallets and Thailand’s competitive edge are to recover in 2026.