Strong Baht May Pinch Tourists as Thailand Targets 39 Million Visitors by 2026

Thailand is preparing for what could be its busiest tourism year yet, but the buoyant arrival forecasts come with a caveat: a firm baht may leave foreign visitors feeling their wallets are lighter. Industry bodies are urging policymakers to strike the right balance between currency strength and visitor spending power to keep the kingdom competitive.

At a glance

• 39 million international arrivals projected for 2026 by ATTA

• 9 million Chinese travellers expected—double the 2025 tally

• Competition from Vietnam (up to 40% cheaper) and Japan’s soft yen

• Industry’s preferred range: ฿33–35 per US$ for healthy tourism receipts

• Measures under discussion: hotel subsidies, park-fee waivers, airline incentives

Currency Bite: The Baht’s Punch on Price Tags

When the baht hovers near ฿30–31 per US$, everyday costs—from a Bangkok street-food meal to a Phuket island-hop—look pricier to visitors. With the currency up around 8% since January, international guests effectively lose spending power, driving them to allocate less on shopping, dining and excursions. Economists and the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) argue that an exchange rate closer to ฿33–35 would help sustain both resort bookings and export revenues, while some even recall the post-1997 crisis era around ฿40, which once boosted inbound tourism dramatically.

Rival Shores: Vietnam and Japan Benefit

At roughly 60% of Thailand’s daily costs, Vietnam now markets eco-tours, visa waivers and aggressive package discounts. Meanwhile, Japan’s softer yen has tempered sticker shock for high-spenders, even as Tokyo readies a tripled international levy in April. For Thailand, this means price-sensitive groups—from India to budget-minded Chinese travellers—could rethink their itineraries and head to Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh City or Southeast Japan instead.

The China Dimension: From Royal Diplomacy to Social-Media Buzz

Encouraged by the royal couple’s well-received visit to Beijing, online sentiment about Thailand among Chinese netizens has surged. ATTA forecasts 9 million Chinese arrivals in 2026—twice the 2025 figure—and TAT aims to restore mainland visitors to 6.7 million, matching 2024 levels. Daily landings have climbed past 14 000, up from 8 000–9 000 six months ago. Still, isolated incidents—like the disappearance of actor Xingxing near the Myanmar border—alongside Thai–Cambodian border skirmishes, continue to rattle confidence, causing some charter operators to postpone flights to Udon Thani when tourists confuse it with conflict-adjacent Ubon Ratchathani.

Industry’s Wish List: Policy Tools on the Table

Tourism stakeholders have outlined a series of measures to cushion the impact of a strong baht:

• Exchange-rate corridor: Aim for ฿33–35/US$, with Bank of Thailand interventions as needed

• Hotel incentives: Subsidise one night in four during peak season to soften room rates

• Fee waivers: Cut or waive national-park and Grand Palace charges for organised groups

• Airline rebates: Negotiate landing-fee discounts and marketing support with AOT

• Safety branding: Roll out the “Trusted Thailand” seal and expand Safe Travels accreditation nationwide

Simultaneously, TAT’s “Value over Volume” strategy redirects investment toward luxury, wellness and green tourism, targeting travellers ready to pay for memorable experiences rather than bargain deals.

What Locals Should Watch: Jobs, Prices and Provincial Futures

For thousands of Thais employed in hospitality—from Krabi beachside bungalows to Chiang Mai boutique inns—currency swings translate directly into tips, overtime and pricing negotiations. Vendors in night markets may adjust menu prices if they observe fewer foreign diners. In border provinces like Songkhla, recent floods have already depressed cross-border traffic from Malaysia, underscoring how environmental events compound currency-driven shifts. As we head into the late-2025 high season, businesses and policymakers alike must monitor exchange-rate trends closely to ensure both visitors and residents continue to benefit from Thailand’s tourism engine.