70,000 Displaced as Thailand–Cambodia Ceasefire Leaves 3 Border Zones on Edge

Border gunfire may have fallen silent for the first time in weeks, yet commanders along Thailand’s northeastern frontier insist the danger has merely shifted, not disappeared. A fragile ceasefire inked with Phnom Penh is now in its second day, but three familiar ridgelines—Phu Makua, the Preah Vihear escarpment and Prasat Ta Kwai—remain on a hair-trigger. Soldiers, aid workers and villagers all tell the same story: heavy weapons may be cooling, but mistrust is still searingly hot.

Quick Read

• Ceasefire began at noon on 27 December after 3 weeks of artillery and BM-21 rocket salvos.

• Thai Second Army flags Phu Makua, Phra Wihan ridge and Prasat Ta Kwai as the most dangerous sectors.

• At least 70,000 Thais are still in evacuation shelters across Si Sa Ket, Surin and Ubon Ratchathani.

• Landmine teams start work tomorrow; both capitals agreed to 72-hour verification before prisoner exchanges.

A Thin Line Between Calm and Chaos

The ceasefire’s opening 36 hours have been largely quiet, according to field reports collected by the Royal Thai Army. Yet forward observers continue to spot Cambodian surveillance drones, and Thai counter-battery radar locked onto two short mortar bursts just before dawn. Commanders describe the situation as “watch-and-wait”—no troop pull-backs, no fresh shelling, but no confidence either.

Three Flashpoints Still Smouldering

Phu Makua plateau: Scene of last week’s BM-21 strikes. Thai infantry say they hear tracked vehicles on the Cambodian side each night, though tanks have not crossed the tree line since the ceasefire.

Phra Wihan/Preah Vihear ridge: Artillery positions remain dug in on both cliffs. The temple precinct, already contested in 2008 and 2011, is once again a barometer for wider relations.

Prasat Ta Kwai – Hill 350: Engineers found fresh PMN-2 mines during clearance patrols on Saturday, injuring two soldiers. Both armies accuse each other of planting them after the ceasefire call.

Civilian Toll and Humanitarian Strain

Hospitals in Ubon Ratchathani report treating 140 blast injuries since early December, nearly a third caused by unexploded ordnance. Evacuation centres inside three Thai provinces shelter roughly 70,000 displaced villagers; another 15,000 Cambodians crossed over to seek safety with relatives in Surin. Local officials warn that schools slated to reopen next week may have to remain closed if de-mining lags.

What Experts Are Watching

Security analysts at Chulalongkorn University caution that the truce’s real test will come after Monday’s 72-hour verification window. “Both sides kept troops exactly where they were,” notes Dr Surachart Bamrungsuk. “If even a single round strays, elite opinion in Bangkok and Phnom Penh could harden, undoing months of shuttle diplomacy.” The Institute of Strategic Policy adds that prolonged conflict would shave up to 1.6 % off Cambodian GDP and dent Thai border trade by ฿15 billion.

The Road Ahead: Opportunity and Obstacles

Thai negotiators see three immediate tasks:

• Joint mine-clearance teams begin mapping suspected fields on Monday, using LiDAR for the first time.

• A hotline between defence ministers is to go live tonight, meant to defuse incidents within 30 minutes.

• Bangkok indicates it is ready to repatriate 18 Cambodian prisoners of war if calm holds through New Year’s Eve.

Villagers, meanwhile, simply want their farms back before the dry season planting window closes. As one rice grower in Kantharalak put it, “We can live with troops on the ridge. We can’t live with rockets in our paddies.” Whether the ceasefire blossoms into lasting peace—or merely pauses another round of shelling—will hinge on how both governments handle these next few days.